Crecimiento e instituciones en los países de América Latina: Una revisión experimental para el siglo
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ABSTRACT
Institutions have been widely studied as triggers of economic growth. Latin American countries in the XXI century have shown an increment in State interventionism; nevertheless, the region exhibited an average annual growth rate around 3.31 percent in the first seventeen years. This research is trying to establish the causality between economic freedom, oil-production, and collectivism with economic growth. In this research in progress report we show early results of our experimental design, which demonstrates the importance of these institutions. Using basic statistics on growth, we conclude that countries that reduced their economic freedom experienced an economic growth of about 1.81 percentage points lower than those countries that did not reduce it, at 1% of significance level. On average, our findings suggest that in Latin America during the analyzed timeframe (2001-2017), non-oil producer countries enjoyed an average annual economic growth rate of about 1.14 percentage points higher that the economic growth experienced by oil-producers. Interestingly, more-collectivist countries grew 0.48 percentage points more than less-collectivist. Finally, we estimated a difference-in-differences model using OLS, and generated instruments (Lewbel, 2012; Lewbel, 2018) accounting for country fixed effects, and applied a variety of estimators to determine the effect of economic freedom in these countries. Our results, statistically significant, suggest that Latin American countries that lose economic freedom grow at a lower rate than the rest of the countries.
KEYWORDS: Latin American, Economic Analysis , Growth, Freedom.
RESUMEN
Las instituciones han sido ampliamente estudiadas como impulsoras del crecimiento económico. Los países Latinoamericanos en el siglo XXI han tenido un incremento en el intervencionismo del Estado; sin embargo, la región presenta un promedio de la tasa anual de crecimiento alrededor de 3.31 por ciento en los primeros diecisiete años. Esta investigación está tratando de establecer la causalidad entre la libertad económica, producción petrolera y colectivismo con el crecimiento económico. En este informe de investigación en progreso, mostramos los primeros resultados de nuestro diseño experimental, el cual demuestra la importancia de estas instituciones. Utilizando estadísticas básicas de crecimiento, concluimos que los países que redujeron su libertad económica experimentaron aproximadamente una tasa de crecimiento de 1.81 puntos porcentuales menos que aquellos países que no redujeron la libertad económica, este resultado es estadísticamente significativo al 1%. En promedio, nuestros hallazgos sugieren que en Latinoamérica durante el período de estudio (2001-2017), los países no-petroleros disfrutaron en promedio de una tasa anual de crecimiento aproximadamente 1.14 puntos porcentuales mayor que los países petroleros de esta región. Sin embargo, los países más-colectivistas crecieron a una tasa anual promedio que superó en 0.48 puntos porcentuales a la de los menos-colectivistas. Finalmente, estimamos un modelo de diferencias en diferencias, para ello utilizamos MCO, y variables instrumentales generadas controlando por efectos fijos por país y aplicando una serie de estimadores para determinar el efecto de la libertad económica en estos países. Nuestros resultados, estadísticamente significativos, sugieren que los países Latinoamericanos que pierden libertad económica crecen a una menor tasa que el resto de los países.
CÓDIGO JEL: K,K11,P14
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